2019 Real Estate Market Outlook
Monday January 14, 2019
We took a look at what experts, forecasters and market commentators have to say about what the real estate market in Canada will be like this year.
Economic growth is slowing in Canada and around the world and resulting in more people calling for less mortgage rate increases than expected. The interest rate hikes of 2018 and new mortgage rules have definitely had a slowing effect on transactions and to a lesser extent, prices. The consensus seems that the next couple of years the housing market will generally see resale transactions of around 500,000 a year and price increases below 2% a year on average.
2019 Housing Market Outlook
CTV News interviews Toronto based realtor Tom Storey with Royal Lepage who provides some insightful analysis and commentary on where the market is now and where it is likely headed.
Here is a good article on Renx.ca that recaps what happened in 2018, provides a brief outlook for 2019 and provides market commentary for six major markets based on an Altus report.
The CMHC is expecting the number of new homes starting construction to be lower than the highs reached in 2017 but still a respectable level, around 200,000, with a declining trend over the next couple of years. 2016 was a record year for resale transactions and it is expected that Canada will not see that level of activity over the next couple of years, but they do expect prices to increase moderately. See page 4 of the report for highlights on each province.
“Over our forecast horizon, housing starts are projected to decline from elevated levels recorded recently. Resales should also moderate while house prices are expected to reach levels that are more in line with the fundamentals.” Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC